MicheBel's Blog

...Best Picture Oscar Won't Win, and "Bobby" Will The last few months, people have been talking up some pictures, and talking down others. As it shakes out at this moment (early January), the perceived frontrunners to take the Best Picture Oscar include "Dreamgirls" and "The Departed." Some are heavily in the camp of "Letters from Iwo Jima." A few are truly behind "The Queen." The odd person here or there thinks "Babel" is a masterpiece. But nobody, and I mean nobody, in the entertainment forums in this town is talking about or listing "Bobby," (the Emilio Estevez film about Bobby Kennedy). In fact, when I quietly, shyly bring it up, you can almost hear the scoffs of derision. Well, at least you could before the SAG noms came out. Even then, it was "Oh, it only got one nom, it's dead, forget it." Course, that was also before the BAFTAs showed their "Long List" of 15 candidates for each award, in which "Bobby" received 8 (count 'em EIGHT) nominations. I already knew, before I came home to this news, and the announcement today only cements what I was going to write about. "Bobby" is going to win Best Picture, and here's why. Let me go back even further to dissect last year's tussle between those wondrous cowboys on that mountain and the eventual winner, "Crash." So many wrote off why "Brokeback Mountain" didn't win as a commentary on gay issues. It wasn't that. It is this most of all. The Best Picture of the year, being representative both of the year and of the members of the Academy, has big shoes to fill. It's got to say something, something positive about who we are and where we are going. All "Brokeback Mountain" said was that one guy who couldn't express his feelings loved another guy and never told him. Both died unhappy. What does that say? It leaves you with regret and sadness. "Crash," on the other hand, was magical in its weaving of many stories, magical stories, about how people in LA never touch. In retrospect, it had Oscar written all over it. Let me be among the first to tell you that "Bobby" is this year's "Crash." "Dreamgirls," for example, a film many people wanted to be this year's "Chicago," and btw, it isn't. It's been highly touted. Many saw it as a done deal that Dreamgirls would take the Best Picture Oscar. But here's the thing about Dreamgirls. Say what you will about its origins, and its connection to anyone in reality (legal disclaimer inserted here). I'm a girl from Detroit. This story is about Motown, Berry Gordy Jr. and Diana Ross and The Supremes. Period. The times were tough, no question. Black acts were not given an easy road. But still, many questionable corners were cut in The Supremes' rise to fame, no matter who's telling the story. In this version of the (not connected to reality, of course) story, the rise involves payola to radio stations and heroin addiction. Song stealing and ego trampling. The usual music biz stuff. And while Jennifer Hudson is going to take home a well-deserved Oscar for her amazing Effie, the movie is NOT Best Picture material. Cause in the end, it's an ugly picture, everyone using everyone else. So, too, in a different way, with The Departed, another strong favorite. I don't deny that this time Martin Scorsese is the odds-on favorite to win (finally!) for Best Director. I think, and hope, he will. But the picture is basically a twist-filled thriller, a remake at that. Who's the rat? How deep are the layers of corruption? On both sides? Not exactly warming the cockles of anyone's heart. And, like most Hong Kong thrillers, at the end nearly everyone is dead. Not Best Picture material. No, I'm sorry. These two may very well be nominated, but they will not win Best PIcture. Nor will, I"m sorry to say, a picture that is completely in Japanese. I'm sure Clint Eastwood did masterful work with both Flags of our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima, but I haven't seen either one. I've had enough war. What we are looking for here, trying to mine a diamond amidst this haystack of films, is the one with the true heart. Actually, briefly, I contemplated Blood Diamond, because at least it has a character with an arc, who tries to do the right thing. No, Blood Diamond will have to be content with its Best Actor award for Leonardo DiCaprio and Best Supporting Actor award for Djimon Honsou. Sadly, I don't think it either is Best Picture this year. The more films I see to dispel other theories, the more I keep coming back to "Bobby." Even aside from the fact that so many Hollywood actors are in it, and the fact that it takes place in LA, the main reason I think it's going to win Best Picture is because of its message. It, like "Crash" before it, covers many stories of many people, but the one that resonates the most is the story of "Bobby." More to the point, the words of Bobby Kennedy, which fill the final moments of the film. Without going into the politics, suffice to say that Bobby was killed for his words. For the threat he posed to business as usual in this country. We can honor Bobby by making those words live again, by making Bobby's dream our dream. I suspect there are a lot in Hollywood who want to raise that flag high. And by making it Best Picture, Bobby's dream lives again. Just can't beat that.